Here is a recap of our election coverage from June 16th.

06/16/2026 07:00 pm

First Election Day Post & Expectations for Tonight

Tonight is Opportunity DC’s first election-night live blog! We’ve heard from supporters that they want data-driven analysis and real-time updates to make sense of DC’s most consequential election cycle in decades. We aim to explain the election results as they come in, against our internal benchmarks. Here are three things to expect from tonight and our coverage:

• It’s unlikely that we’ll know the results for the most competitive races tonight (Mayor, Delegate, open Council seats). Polling and basic math suggest candidates running in crowded races won’t reach the 50% threshold needed to avoid the ranked-choice voting reallocation process.
• Early voting turnout numbers have been well below 2022 levels. Voters might have waited until election day to decide, or turnout might be down. Trump typically increases Democratic turnout more than usual; a low-turnout election would be surprising.
• We will try to answer your questions! Please email us at info@opportunity-dc.org or tweet us @mhf187 if you have an election night question you want answered!

06/16/2026 07:30 pm

Don’t Expect Official Calls tonight

NOTUS reporter Martin Austermuhle shared that the DC Board of Elections plans to count all in-person votes (early + election day) and all mail/drop box votes received before election day tonight. However, ballots mailed or dropped off today won’t be released until later. DCBOE said that the RCV redistribution process will likely start on Sunday, June 21st.

06/16/2026 08:00 pm

DC Polls Officially Close

The polls in DC have officially closed! Voters who got in line before 8 PM can and should stay until they cast their vote. We will start highlighting and analyzing vote tabulations as they come in.

06/16/2026 08:10 pm

Early Voting is Down 6% from 2022

Two days before the 2022 mayoral election, 63,383 DC voters had cast their ballots. This year, only 59,542 voters cast their ballots two days before the election. We don’t have the full data set, as the 2022 data isn’t completely available on the BOE website. However, the 6% decline is the best data point we have so far to indicate turnout tonight.

Election day turnout might not follow a similar trend. Voters might have been waiting to cast their ballots to learn more about the candidates or figure out ranked choice voting. Anecdotal reports suggest many voters are dropping off their ballots rather than casting them in-person. Election day drop box votes and mail ballots are the last to be counted; we likely won’t know the full turnout picture until late tonight or early tomorrow.

06/16/2026 08:30 pm

Which Votes Get Counted First?

As votes come in, we will try to share the sources of those ballots. Historically, the DC Board of Elections (DCBOE) releases votes in batches in the following order:

• Mail or drop box votes received before Sunday
• In-person early voting from June 8th to 14th
• In-person election day
• Drop box or mail votes postmarked by election day
• Provisional ballots

06/16/2026 09:30 pm

No Data Yet – DCBOE Will Release 1st Batch Soon… Allegedly

06/16/2026 11:12 pm

First batch of votes shows large lead for JLG in Mayor’s race

The first batch of votes is officially out. 103,441 votes have been counted so far. It appears the votes include a mix of election day, early in-person voting, and mail/dropbox from before election day. Here are the key toplines from the competitive races:

• Mayor’s race: Janeese Lewis George leads Kenyan McDuffie 52.5% to 36.8%
• Delegate race: Robert White leads Brooke Pinto 63% to 21.5%
• Council AL-Dem: Oye Owolewa leads with 33.7%, Lisa Raymond in 2nd with 15.3%, Kevin Chavous in 3rd with 14%, Greg Jackson in 4th with 11%, and 5 other candidates in single digits.
• Council AL-Ind (special): Elissa Silverman leads with 54.7%, Doni Crawford in 2nd with 25%, and Jacque Patterson in 3rd with 19.2%
• Ward 1 Council: Aparna Araj leads with 46.3%, followed by Miguel Deramo with 20.4%, Rashida Brown with 17.4%, and Jackie Reyes with 9.8%.

More in-depth analysis on each race coming shortly.

06/16/2026 11:47 pm

Undecided Voters Appear to Have Broken Dramatically for JLG

With 66% of the vote in, Lewis George is leading McDuffie in 7 of 8 wards. City Cast’s May 20th poll had JLG ahead of McDuffie 39% – 34%, with 24% undecided. JLG’s 52.5% to 37% lead suggests that most undecided voters broke her way. We’re still waiting on election day mail and drop box votes, but McDuffie has a mountain to climb if he wants to make up this gap.

Here’s the ward-level breakdown:

• McDuffie is leading Lewis George by 3.5% in Ward 3
• Lewis George leads McDuffie by 40% in Ward 1, her largest advantage of any ward
• Lewis George leads McDuffie by 18% in both her home of Ward 4 and Ward 5 (which McDuffie used to represent)
• Lewis George also has an advantage East of the River, where McDuffie was expected to be strong. She is ahead in Ward 8 by 14% and in Ward 7 by 10%.
• Lewis George also has a large advantage in Ward 6, up 20%
• She also has an 8% lead in Ward 2

I’ll share more precinct-level breakdowns after receiving more votes.

06/16/2026 11:57 pm

Robert White Holds Commanding Lead in Delegate Race

At-Large Councilmember Robert White leads Ward 2 Councilmember Brooke Pinto 63% – 22% in the race to succeed Eleanor Holmes Norton as DC’s Delegate to Congress. Press outlets might be unwilling to call this race until all election day mail and drop box votes have been counted, but it’s hard to see a path back for Pinto to overcome a 40-point deficit with 65% of the votes counted. If Robert White is elected, there will be a special election to fill his At-Large Council vacancy sometime between April and June of 2027.

06/17/2026 12:16 am

Owolewa holds early lead in At-Large Dem Council seat, RCV will decide outcome

DC Shadow Representative Oye Owolewa has an early lead to succeed Councilmember Anita Bonds with 34% of the vote. Lisa Rayomond, Kevin Chavous, and Greg Jackson remain in the hunt with 15%, 14%, and 11%, respectively. As expected, this race will come down to how many 2nd-, 3rd-, and 4th-place votes the various Council candidates receive.

Oye is currently winning every Ward in DC. His largest lead is in Ward 1, where he has 45% of the vote. Ironically, Oye performs the worst east of the river, even though he lives in Ward 8. We will have a clearer sense of the race when more votes come in and RCV allocation starts by June 21st.

06/17/2026 12:20 am

WaPo Calls Delegate Race for Robert White

The Washington Post has declared Robert White the winner of the DC Delegate Race. White will succeed Eleanor Holmes Norton, who has been DC’s delegate to Congress since 1990.

06/17/2026 12:26 am

A Good Night for DC Incumbents – Winners Announced

New outlets have announced the following incumbents comfortably won their primaries tonight:

• Chairman Phil Mendelson with 95%
• Ward 3 Councilmember Matt Fruimt with 96%
• Ward 5 Councilmember Zachary Parker with 76%
• Ward 6 Councilmember Charles Allen with 74%
• Attorney General Brian Schwalb with 90%

Opportunity DC endorsed Chairman Mendelson as well as Councilmembers Parker and Allen.

06/17/2026 12:38 am

Former Metro DSA Chair Aparna Raj Ahead in Ward 1 Council Race

Aparna Raj leads the Ward 1 Council race with 46.7%. Migue Deramo and Rashida Brown are at 20% and 17%, respectively. Deramo and Brown were the first candidates this cycle to co-endorse each other. Outgoing Ward 1 Councilmember Brianne Nadeau endorsed Brown while most labor groups and Greater Greater Washington endorsed Raj.

Raj is on track to reach the 50% threshold to win after one or two rounds of RCV reallocation.

06/17/2026 01:23 am

Signing Off for Tonight – More Analysis Tomorrow

That’s a wrap on Opportunity DC’s first night of election night coverage. Here are the big takeaways from the 106,033 votes we’ve received so far:

• It was a big night for farther left candidates. Robert White won the nomination for delegate, and Democratic Socialists Janeese Lewis George and Aparna Raj hold comfortable leads in the Mayor and Ward 1 Council races. Elissa Silverman is also poised to reclaim her At-large Council seat 4 years after losing to Kenyan McDuffie.
• The At-Large Democratic seat remains competitive and will be decided by RCV in the coming days. Oye’s early lead will be tested as we go through several rounds of RCV reallocation.
• The Board of Elections didn’t make any new friends. We can’t talk about tonight without mentioning that the Board of Elections didn’t release any election results until around 10:30 PM, 2.5 hours after polls closed. This delay was exacerbated by the lack of communication, as onlookers were left waiting for hours without updates or new information. Hopefully, the RCV process will run more smoothly in the coming days.

We’ll post additional updates and analysis tomorrow as more votes are counted. You can also expect additional coverage on Sunday, June 21st, when DCBOE tabulates the RCV redistributions for races that are undecided.

Good night and thank you to those who tuned in!